Invitation For Teachers Day Card

Los Angeles Apple Affairs Council & Town Hall Los Angeles, CA By Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco For charge on October 15, 2019 12:30PM PT

Teacher Appreciation Invitation Wording - Teacher ... - invitation for teachers day card
Teacher Appreciation Invitation Wording – Teacher … – invitation for teachers day card | invitation for teachers day card

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Introduction

Thank you so abundant for the allurement to be here. It’s a absolute honor. The issues of our day crave a charge to dialogue. Allowing assorted groups to discuss, debate, and apprentice raises the best anniversary and creates bigger outcomes.

The Los Angeles Apple Affairs Council and Town Hall Los Angeles accept promoted such chat for decades. And now that you’ve abutting forces, I apperceive your bequest will abound alike more. I’m abandoned captivated to be one of the first speakers of this new partnership.

Today, I’m activity to allocution about one of the best analytical issues of our day: bread-and-butter growth. How we are growing now… advance we’ve accomplished in the past… and what factors could atmosphere or activation our advance in the future.

But afore I begin, I charge to accord the accepted disclaimer: the animadversion I’m about to bear are my own and don’t necessarily reflect the angle of anyone abroad aural the Federal Reserve System.

Current conditions

So let’s alpha with advance today. How’s the abridgement doing?

Here, the anniversary is abundantly positive. The abridgement continues to aggrandize at a solid pace. Job advance is strong, unemployment is low, customer spending is healthy, and households abide confident. These are all absolutely acceptable signs.

On the added hand, we’ve yet to accomplish our aggrandizement ambition on a sustained basis. And a cardinal of headwinds – such as barter ambiguity and slower global advance – accept started to gust. This has acquired accomplishment and business advance to abate appreciably over the advance of the year.

To ensure we sustain the amplification adjoin these headwinds, the Fed has adopted a added accommodative budgetary action position – acid the federal funds amount in both July and September. This adaptation should advice the abridgement abide to abound so that we can accomplish added advance on our mandated goals of abounding application and amount stability.

Drags on approaching growth

But what is the clip of advance we’re aggravating to hit? What’s sustainable?

This cardinal has afflicted badly over time. During the 60 years above-mentioned to the Great Recession, GDP advance averaged about 3.5 percent.

During the accepted expansion, advance has averaged abandoned 2.3 percent. And this slower pace, far from actuality an anomaly, is accepted to continue. Most economists and forecasters, including me, adumbrate GDP advance will boilerplate a bit beneath 2 percent for the accountable future.1

So what’s activity on? Why is America’s abridgement accretion at a abundant slower pace than it acclimated to?

To explain, we charge to attending at the axiological drivers of bread-and-butter growth: abundance and the activity force.

Let’s aboriginal accede abundance growth. Although it’s fluctuated over time, it’s about contributed a little over 1 allotment point to all-embracing GDP advance aback the 1970s. It’s anticipation to do about the aforementioned activity forward. So the acumen for slower advance acceptable isn’t productivity.2

Activity force advance tells a altered story. In the 1970s, aback the U.S. citizenry was accretion rapidly and women were entering the workforce in ample numbers, activity force advance abandoned averaged 2.7 percent annually. That agency – alike if abundance advance had been aught – the economy would accept broadcast at 2.7 percent. That’s faster than the clip of our current expansion.

Aback that peak, the cardinal has appear bottomward substantially. The activity force has developed beneath than 0.5 allotment point annually for the accomplished decade – and it’s anticipation to break that way for at atomic addition ten years.3

Abundant of this abatement in activity force advance is due to simple demographic changes. Our citizenry is aging. Fewer babies are actuality born. This dynamic isn’t altered to the United States – countries about the apple are experiencing agnate trends.

But there’s article that is altered in America. We’ve accomplished a abatement in activity force accord for bodies amid the ages of 25 and 54 – what we generally alarm prime-age workers. And appropriate now, there is a smaller atom of this accumulation alive or actively gluttonous assignment than we had aback in the backward 1980s and 1990s.

This raises an important question: why aren’t added prime-age Americans working?

Teacher Appreciation Invitation Wording - Teacher ... - invitation for teachers day card
Teacher Appreciation Invitation Wording – Teacher … – invitation for teachers day card | invitation for teachers day card

There isn’t a simple answer. There’s a accomplished host of issues at play.

On one end of the spectrum, analysis suggests that some of the bead may be attributed to wealthier families allotment to accept abandoned one earner.4 So families with the banking adeptness to accomplish these work-life choices may anniversary for some of the absent activity force participation.

On the added end of the spectrum, abounding bodies break home to booty affliction of accouchement not out of choice, but out of necessity. Rising childcare costs and abridgement of admission to affectionate leave acceptable accord to lower activity force accord rates, abnormally amid women.5

Then there’s the alteration activity market, which is abrogation abounding bodies on the sidelines – absent to work, but not accepting the abilities or apprenticeship to keep clip with the ever-evolving economy.6

Added jobs currently crave a bachelor’s amount than a aerial academy diploma.7 Unfortunately, academy achievement ante haven’t kept up with demand. Recent abstracts tells us abandoned 37 percent of 25- to 29-year-olds accept a college education.8 And we see that abundant of the abatement in prime-age workforce accord is concentrated amid individuals who abridgement a academy degree.9

These are aloof a few of the factors active bottomward activity force accord in the United States. We could additionally allocution about the aptitude actuality absent to opioid addiction. Or geographic mismatches that leave rural communities with affordable apartment and few jobs, and burghal communities with abounding jobs and skyrocketing apartment costs.

Whatever the reason, we accept added bodies sitting on the sidelines than in the past. This poses attainable problems for individuals and families – but it also poses problems for our economy.

Absent a billow in abundance growth, apathetic advance in the workforce is going to be a cogent structural abstemiousness on America’s bread-and-butter future.

The present doesn’t accept to ascertain the future

So what can we do? Are we absolutely destined to abound at aloof 2 percent moving forward? The acknowledgment is acceptable yes… unless we accomplish cogent changes that bigger appoint all that aptitude we’re abrogation on the sidelines. This will crave a concerted accomplishment from abounding stakeholders – including the Federal Reserve.

At the Fed, our job is to abutment a advantageous abridgement and accomplish the dual authorization goals of abounding application and amount stability. The argumentation of our mandate is that a able abridgement allowances everyone. And we can see this in the current expansion.

Ten years of abiding advance accept bargain unemployment ante to abreast historic lows and pulled millions of Americans aback into the activity force. This continued and able-bodied amplification has been decidedly benign to historically less-advantaged workers, including African Americans, Hispanics, and those with beneath than a academy degree.

This makes sense. Aback activity markets are tight, as they are now, businesses accept to attempt for workers and acquisition new means to ample jobs. They recruit more intensively, acclimatize hiring standards, and attending to a broader basin of potential employees. This creates new opportunities for beneath advantaged workers and allows them to get a ballast in the activity force.10 Indeed, the abstracts acquaint us that the backbone of the accepted amplification has narrowed abiding gaps amid added and beneath advantaged groups.11

But while these gaps are narrowing, they still persist. And budgetary policy abandoned isn’t abundant to abutting them. Reducing the structural barriers that limit workforce accord or accumulate individuals from extensive their abounding potential requires demography a adamantine attending at some of our amusing and abode policies.

There are any cardinal of examples we could consider, but I’d like to focus on two from contempo research.

The aboriginal looks at women. In the mid-1990s, a gap began to anatomy in the accord ante of women in the United States and Canada. By 2017, the prime-age accord amount for American women was 8 allotment credibility lower than for agnate women in Canada. This is a amazing difference. It represents about 5 actor U.S. women who could be in the activity force. A growing anatomy of assignment suggests that this aberration can be attributed in part to Canada’s acceptable affectionate leave behavior and childcare subsidies, which acquiesce women to abide absorbed to the activity bazaar afterwards adolescent birth.12

My additional archetype relates to educational accomplishment and career opportunities. African Americans and Hispanics accept four-year degrees at about bisected the amount of whites.13 And alike aback they do get degrees, their career paths accept a flatter trajectory.14 In economics parlance, we alarm this is a misallocation of talent.

But how cher is this array of misallocation? It’s adamantine to apperceive in absolute time, but we can attending to history for some indication. Researchers at Stanford and the University of Chicago advised advance in U.S. per capita achievement between 1960 and 2010. They asked how abundant of that advance was due to the abatement of structural barriers, such as absolute discrimination, lower academy affection in boyhood communities, and banking obstacles that kept less-advantaged people from advancing high-paying careers in fields like anesthetic and law. The allegation were striking. They estimated that the abatement of structural barriers accounted for up to 40 percent of the assets in U.S. per capita output.15

So aptitude misallocation affects our basal line. This suggests that equalizing educational accomplishment ante and career opportunities for beneath advantaged groups could aftermath a ample bread-and-butter boost.

One being at a time

Up until now, I’ve talked about what institutions can do to advice get talent off the sidelines and into the activity force. But I appetite to end with what people can do. Because this is what gives me the best hope.

Let me booty you to Firebaugh, California, about four hours arctic of actuality in Fresno County. It’s a rural agronomical community. Abounding of the bodies living there don’t allege English as their aboriginal language. It’s one of the poorest regions in America.

And yet… 97 percent of Firebaugh’s kids alum from aerial school. That’s 12 allotment credibility academy than the civic average. And best of them go on to academy or added post-secondary study.16

Teacher Appreciation Invitation Wording - Teacher ... - invitation for teachers day card
Teacher Appreciation Invitation Wording – Teacher … – invitation for teachers day card | invitation for teachers day card

So how do they do it? The absolute association of Firebaugh – from parents to agents to acceptance to bounded leaders – accept fabricated apprenticeship a singular priority.

But they’re not the abandoned one.

Barrio Logan, abreast city San Diego, is a mostly Latinx community. The boilerplate anniversary assets for a ancestors of four there is $25,000. Abandoned 38 percent of adults accept a aerial academy diploma. Aloof 3 percent authority a bachelor’s degree.

But the Barrio Logan Academy Institute is allowance change that narrative. They alpha advancing aboriginal bearing acceptance for academy in third grade. For kids enrolled in their program, 100 percent end up admission from aerial academy – and 100 percent go on to accept in college.17

These are adorning success stories. They acquaint us the ability of people. And they appearance us what’s attainable aback bodies appear calm to adjudge that their accompaniment today doesn’t accept to actuate their accompaniment tomorrow.

Conclusion

So how do we change the future? How do we calibration places like Firebaugh and Barrio Logan?

The acknowledgment is simple: with intention.

Fairness has been a abiding aspiration of our society. But aspiration isn’t enough. We accept to about-face our admiration to be fair into a charge to include. Inclusion has to become our practice.

We accept to appear together. We accept to amalgamate the armament of our institutions… our communities… our people.

That’s the way we acceleration aloft what the abstracts acquaint us is possible. That’s the way we’ll accord the abutting bearing a bigger approaching than the one we inherited.

Thank you.

End Notes

1. Board of Governors (2019). The median of FOMC affiliate projections of longer-run advance is 1.9 percent.

2. Fernald and Li (2019).

3. Congressional Budget Office (2019) and Fernald and Li (2019).

4. Hall and Petrosky-Nadeau (2016).

5. Daly et al. (2018) and Blau and Kahn (2013).

6. Valletta and Barlow (2018) and Charles, Hurst, and Schwartz (2019).

7. Carnevale, Jayasundera, and Gulish (2016).

8. Civic Center for Education Statistics (2018).

9. See Tuzemen (2018), who focuses on prime-age men.

10. Petrosky-Nadeau and Valletta (2019).

Teachers Day Card Making Tutorial | Handmade Greeting Card | DIY Gifts  Teachers Day - invitation for teachers day card
Teachers Day Card Making Tutorial | Handmade Greeting Card | DIY Gifts Teachers Day – invitation for teachers day card | invitation for teachers day card

11. Aaronson et al. (2019).

12. Daly et al. (2018).

13. Civic Center for Education Statistics (2018).

14. Daly et al. (2017).

15. Hsieh et al. (2019).

16. Firebaugh Aerial Academy (2017).

17. Barrio Logan Academy Institute (2019).

References

Aaronson, Stephanie, Mary C. Daly, William Wascher, and David W. Wilcox. 2019. “Okun Revisited: Who Allowances Best From a Able Economy?” Brookings Papers on Bread-and-butter Activity Conference Draft, Spring.

Barrio Logan Academy Institute. 2019. “The Charge for BLCI.” Website accessed October 8, 2019.

Blau, Francine D., and Lawrence M. Kahn. 2013. “Female Activity Supply: Why Is the United States Falling Behind?” American Bread-and-butter Review 103(3, May), pp. 251–256.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2019. “FOMC Projections materials, attainable version.” September 18.

Carnevale, Anthony P., Tamara Jayasundera, and Artem Gulish. 2016. America’s Divided Recovery: Academy Haves and Have-Nots. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Center on Apprenticeship and the Workforce.

Charles, Kerwin Kofi, Erik Hurst, and Mariel Schwartz. 2019. “The Transformation of Accomplishment and the Abatement in U.S. Employment.” Chapter 5, NBER Macroeconomics Anniversary 2018, aggregate 33, edited by Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Congressional Budget Office. 2019. An Update to the Budget and Bread-and-butter Outlook: 2019 to 2029. August 21.

Daly, Mary C., Joseph H. Pedtke, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Annemarie Schweinert. 2018. “Why Aren’t U.S. Workers Working?” FRBSF Bread-and-butter Letter 2018-24 (November 13).

Daly, Mary C., Bart Hobijn, and Joseph H. Pedtke. 2017. “Disappointing Facts about the Black-White Wage Gap.” FRBSF Bread-and-butter Letter 2017-26 (September 5).

Fernald, John, and Huiyu Li. 2019. “Is Apathetic Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?” FRBSF Bread-and-butter Letter 2019-17 (June 24).

Firebaugh Aerial School. 2017. “Firebaugh Aerial School: Academy Accountability Report Card Reported Using Abstracts from the 2015–16 Academy Year.”

Hall, Robert, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau. 2016. “Changes in Activity Accord and Household Income.” FRBSF Bread-and-butter Letter 2016-02 (February 1).

Hsieh, Chang-Tai, Erik Hurst, Charles I. Jones, and Peter J. Klenow. 2019. “The Allocation of Aptitude and U.S. Bread-and-butter Growth.” Econometrica 87(5, September), pp. 1,439–1,474.

Civic Center for Apprenticeship Statistics. 2018. “2018 Tables and Figures.” Digest of Apprenticeship Statistics, Table 104.20.

Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, and Robert G. Valletta. 2019. “Unemployment: Lower for Longer?” FRBSF Bread-and-butter Letter 2019-21 (August 19).

Teachers Day Card Making Tutorial | Handmade Greeting Card | DIY Gifts  Teachers Day - invitation for teachers day card
Teachers Day Card Making Tutorial | Handmade Greeting Card | DIY Gifts Teachers Day – invitation for teachers day card | invitation for teachers day card

Tuzemen, Didem. 2018. “Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Activity Force?” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Bread-and-butter Review Q1, pp. 5–30.

Valletta, Robert G., and Nathaniel Barlow. 2018. “The Prime-Age Workforce and Activity Bazaar Polarization.” FRBSF Bread-and-butter Letter 2018-21 (September 10).

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